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Faculty of Economics

The impact of trade policy and exchange rate shocks on trade


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Title: The impact of trade policy and exchange rate shocks on trade

Sponsor: Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)

Description: How will Brexit affect the development and growth of British manufacturing firms? Britain's popular referendum vote to exit from the European Union has created a great deal of uncertainty about the future of Britain's external trade relations with countries that belong to the European Union as well as with other major trading economies external to the EU, including the United States and China. With the government preparing for exit negotiations, little is known about the future external trade policy the UK government intends to establish with regard to European Union states as well as with non-EU countries. Two major and interrelated sources of uncertainty are (a) the future value of the pound sterling relative to the currencies of Britain's trading partners and (b) the future trade policy on imports into the UK as well as the future trade policy Britain's exports will face in the EU.

In this research project, we are conducting:

1. legal research on Britain's rights and obligations under the WTO and numerous bilateral investment treaties in order to focus the economic analysis of policy options (import tariffs, production subsidies) to those that the British government can legally use under international law;

2. economic research focused on trade policies, trade flows and trade impacts in order to predict the impact of Brexit and any proposed future trade agreements on British manufacturers that use imported inputs in their production, British firms that compete with imports in the UK market, on British exporters to EU and non-EU destinations and on workers and consumers in the UK; and

3. economic research on exchange rate pass through (ERPT) in order to forecast how changes in the value of the pound sterling will pass through into British import and export prices.

The UK in a Changing Europe website: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/



Principal investigator


Dr Meredith Crowley


Co-investigator


Dr Lorand Bartels

Post-doc research associate


Dr Lu Han


PhD student


Oliver Exton

External member


Dr Huasheng Song

Published Papers

Corsetti, G., Erce, A. and Uy, T. Official Sector Lending Strategies During the Euro Area Crisis, (2020) The Review of International Organizations
Corsetti, G., Eichengreen, B., Hale, G. and Tallman, E. The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to Charybdis, (2020) Open Economies Review
Crowley, M. A., Exton, O. and Han, L. The Looming Threat of Tariff Hikes: Entry into Exporting under Trade Agreement Renegotiation, (2020) AEA Papers and Proceedings
Bodenstein, M., Corsetti G. and Guerrieri, L. Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic, (2020) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers
Crowley, M. A., Meng, N. and Song, H. Policy shocks and stock market returns: evidence from Chinese solar panels, (2019) Journal of the Japanese and International Economies
Corsetti, G., Mavroeidi, E., Thwaites, G. and Wolf, M. Step away from the zero lower bound: small open economies in a world of secular stagnation, (2019) Journal of International Economics
Corsetti, G., Dedola, L., Jarocinski, M., Mackowiak, B., and Schmidt, S. Macroeconomic stablization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe's monetary union, (2018) European Journal of Political Economy
Crowley, M. A., Meng, N., and Song, H. Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms, (2018) Journal of International Economics

Blogs and Commentary

Bartels, L. Understanding the UK’s position in the WTO after Brexit (Part I – The UK’s status and its schedules), ICTSD
Bartels, L. Understanding the UK’s position in the WTO after Brexit (Part II – The consequences), ICTSD

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics

Bergin, P. R. and Corsetti, G. The Macroeconomic Stabilization Of Tariff Shocks: What Is The Optimal Monetary Response?, (2020) CWPE2026
Crowley, M. A., Exton, O. and Han, L. The Looming Threat of Tariff Hikes: Entry into Exporting Under Trade Agreement Renegotiation, (2020) CWPE2016
Bodenstein, M., Corsetti, G. and Guerrieri, L. The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy, (2020) CWPE2006
Corsetti, G., Eichengreen, B., Hale, G. and Tallman, E. The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to Charybdis, (2019) CWPE1914
Corsetti, G., Crowley, M. A. and Han, L. Invoicing and the Dynamics of Pricing-to-market - Evidence from UK Export Prices around the Brexit Referendum, (2018) CWPE1860
Crowley, M. A., Exton, O. and Han, L. Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports, (2018) CWPE1839

Authored Book

Giancarlo, C., Feld, L.P., Lane, P.R., Reichlin, L A new start for the Eurozone: dealing with debt, (2015) Monitoring the Eurozone - CEPR

Chapter in Book

Bown, C. P. and Crowley, M. A. The empirical landscape of trade policy, (2016) in the book: Handbook of commercial policy, Volume 1 - Elsevier
Crowley, M. A. Why are safeguards needed in a trade agreement?, (2010) in the book: Law and econmics of contingent protection in international trade - Cambridge University Press
Corsetti, G., Dedola, L. and Leduc, S. Optimal monetary policy in open economies, (2010) in the book: Handbook of monetary economics - North-Holland
Deep Trade Agreements - World Bank Webinar - Published on - Friday 16th October 2020
Dr. Meredith Crowley will be presenting new research on trade agreements at the World Bank's "The Economics of Deep Trade Agreements Seminar Series". Dr. Crowley's new paper is "The Value of Deep Trade Agreements in the Presence of Pricing to Market", and is joint with Lu Han (Cambridge-INET affiliate and Lecturer at Liverpool University) and Thomas Prayer (Faculty of Economics, PhD student).

Economics of Covid-19 and Brexit - Published on - Friday 16th October 2020
Dr. Meredith Crowley was a panelist at the UK in a Changing Europe Isolation Insight Webinar, "Economics of Covid-19 and Brexit, revisited", where the panelists discussed the economics of the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK's exit from the EU. This online event took place on 15th October 2020.

Public Investment for the Recovery Seminar - Published on - Wednesday 14th October 2020
The Centre for Economic Policy Research, the Graduate Institute, Geneva and the International Monetary Fund are hosting an online seminar with Professor Giancarlo Corsetti Raphael Espinoza (IMF) and Beatrice Weder di Mauro (CEPR) on Wendesday 21st October 2020, from 1.30pm. The panel will be discussing the October 2020 chapter of the IMF's Fiscal Monitor Report. Register your interest on CEPR event page.

Post-Pandemic Debt Sustainability in the EU/Euro Area - Published on - Friday 18th September 2020
Professor Giancarlo Corsetti and Lorenzo Codogno (Visiting Professor in Practice, LSE) have published an article for VOXeu titled "Post-Pandemic Debt Sustainability in the EU/Euro Area: This Time May (and should) Be Different". This column suggests that the implementation of The EU Recovery Plan could give a substantial boost to the economy and fiscal revenues under very conservative assumptions on multipliers.

D-DebtCon Webinar - Published on - Tuesday 1st September 2020
Prof. Giancarlo Corsetti will be speaking at the D-DebtCon Webinar entitled ‘Sovereign Debt in the European Union’ on 8 September 2020 at 3.30PM CEST on ‘Debt Crises Fast and Slow’. See the Programme and Registration details.

The UK in a Changing Europe Economics of Brexit Conference For Early Career Researchers - Event Date - Tuesday 22nd September 2020
The UK in a Changing Europe, supported by Cambridge-INET, is organising a one-day virtual conference on the Economics of Brexit for Early Career Researchers (untenured assistant professors, postdocs, and PhD students) to take place on the 22nd September 2020, via Zoom.

Economics of Brexit Conference For Early Career Researchers - Call for Papers - Published on - Thursday 13th August 2020
The UK in a Changing Europe, supported by Cambridge-INET, is organising a one-day virtual conference on the Economics of Brexit for Early Career Researchers (untenured assistant professors, postdocs, and PhD students) to take place on the 22nd September 2020, via Zoom. The deadline for submissions is 4th September 2020.

The Heterogeneous Transmission of ECB Policies in a Post-COVID Europe - Published on - Friday 7th August 2020
Professor Giancarlo Corsetti, Joao B. Duarte (Nova School of Business and Economics) and Samuel Mann (IMF) have published an article for VOXeu titled "The Heterogeneous Transmission of ECB Policies: Lessons for a Post-COVID Europe". This column suggests that the disruption to market integration brought about by the COVID-19 crisis may create further challenges to conducting monetary policy in the euro area.

Can Social Distancing Improve the Trade-off Between Health and the Economy? - Published on - Wednesday 5th August 2020
Professor Giancarlo Corsetti will give the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease's COVID-19 Weekly Webinar on "Can Social Distancing Improve the Trade-off Between Health and the Economy?". The webinar will take place online on Thursday 6th August 2020 at 2.00pm and will be hosted by Dr. Nicholas Matheson (CITIID PI and consultant in Infectious Diseases).

Fellowship of the British Academy - Published on - Friday 24th July 2020
The Faculty would like to congratulate Professor Giancarlo Corsetti, who has been elected a Fellow of the British Academy. A Fellowship of the British Academy (FBA) is an award granted by the British Academy to leading academics for their distinction in the humanities and social sciences.

European Parliament and Future EU-UK Trade Relations Webinar - Published on - Thursday 23rd July 2020
Dr. Meredith Crowley will be a panellist on the live webinar "The European Parliament and Future EU-UK Trade Relations", organised by the European Parliament Liaison Office in the United Kingdom. The webinar will take place on Thursday 3rd September 2020, between 12:30-2:00pm. It is open to all and registration is free.

Emerging Market Currency Risk Around ‘Global Disasters’ - Published on - Wednesday 24th June 2020
Professor Giancarlo Corsetti has had a chapter published in CEPR's ebook "COVID-19 in Developing Economies". The chapter "Emerging Market Currency Risk Around ‘global disasters’: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Crisis" (joint with Simon Lloyd (Bank of England) and Emile Marin (PhD Candidate))

UK-US Trade Deal Negotiations - Published on - Monday 22nd June 2020
Dr. Meredith Crowley gave testimony to the House of Commons International Trade Committee, via Zoom, on the 17th June 2020. You can watch a video of the meeting on the parliamentlive.tv website.

The Brexit Negotiations: A Stocktake - Published on - Thursday 18th June 2020
Dr. Meredith Crowley is one of the authors of a new report called "The Brexit Negotiations: A Stocktake", published by academic think tank UK in a Changing Europe. This report finds that it is hard to see how the sort of comprehensive deal the UK and EU say they want can be agreed without an extension.

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