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Faculty of Economics

 

PhD Title


Market Efficiency and Political Events

Research Interests


Market Efficiency, Bayesian Methods, Politics, High Frequency Trading, Market Microstructure

Recent Publications


Published Papers

Auld, T. and Linton, O. The Behaviour of Betting and Currency Markets on the Night of the EU Referendum, International Journal of Forecasting 35 (2018) pp. 371-389

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics

Auld, T. and Linton, O. The Behaviour of Betting and Currency Markets on the Night of the EU Referendum, (2017) CWPE1750

Research Activities


Gamblers Predicted Brexit before Financial Traders
The University's Research site have published an article on a study authored by Tom Auld and Professor Oliver Linton that shows the betting market predicted the Brexit result an hour earlier than the foreign exchange market. A number of media outlets have also picked up the findings of their paper, including Sky News, Daily Mail, Hindustan Times, London Economic, Interesting Engineering, Belfast Telegraph and The Express.
Published on - Monday 14th January 2019

Best Finance Student Paper Award
Congratulations to Maarten De Ridder and Thomas Auld (Faculty PhD students) who have both won prizes at the CERF Cambridge Best Finance Student Paper Award. Maarten's was awarded the £500 prize for his paper "Investment in Productivity and the Long-Run Effect of Financial Crises on Output" and Tom the same for his paper "The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum".
Published on - Monday 18th June 2018


Supervisory Team


Thomas Auld












PhD Student

Research Group:
Econometrics


Contact Details
Email: tja20@cam.ac.uk
College: Churchill College