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Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M.

China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?

CWPE1618

Abstract: China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0:23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0:29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.

Keywords: China's slowdown, global financial market volatility, international business cycle, and Global VAR

JEL Codes: C32 E32 F44 O53

Author links: Kamiar Mohaddes  

PDF: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1618.pdf

Open Access Link: https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.15492


Published Version of Paper: China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?, Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M., Emerging Markets Review (2017)

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