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Faculty of Economics

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Li, S. and Linton, O.

When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?

CWPE2025

Abstract: We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and the number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European CDC. We work with a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country. This seems to accurately describe the trajectory of the epidemic in China. We use our model to predict when the peak of the epidemic will arise in terms of new cases or new deaths in other large countries.

Keywords: COVID-19, Epidemic, Nonparametric, Prediction, Trend

JEL Codes: C10

Author links: Oliver Linton  Shaoran Li  

PDF: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2025.pdf

COVID-19 Economic Research Special Feature: When will the Covid-19 Pandemic Peak?