The Causes and Consequences of the Long UK Expansion: 1992 to 2007

19th - 20th September, Clare College Cambridge

The Conference will take place in the Latimer Room at Clare College

Group Photo


In the aftermath of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, there had been a major upswing in most countries around the world that came to an abrupt end in 2007/8. This period of sustained economic growth and low inflation is sometimes referred to as the Great Moderation. 

The Centre for International Macroeconomics and Finance, which is based at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Cambridge, is holding this conference at Clare College Cambridge on 19th and 20th September 2013.  The proceedings to be published by Cambridge University Press.  Attendance is by invitation only.  Contact: for further details.

The papers linked to here are preliminary and may not be quoted or referenced without the approval of the authors.

This is an academic conference with attendance by invitation only.


9.00 - Coffee and Registration

Session I


Welcome Address and Introduction – Jagjit Chadha

Chair: Mike Wickens

Accounting for UK economic performance 1973-2009
, Ray Barrell, University of Brunel, Dawn Holland and Iana Liadze, NIESR. [slides]

Discussant – Richard Mash, Oxford University [slides]


Price Uncertainty and Stability in the U.K, Paolo Surico, LBS. [slides]

Discussant – Michael McMahon, Warwick University [slides]


Lunch - Great Hall

Session II


Chair: D'Maris Coffman

Labour Market Reforms in the UK in the late 1980s: A Structural Investigation of the Implications, Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford. [slides]

Discussant – John Fender, Birmingham [slides]



Session III


Chair: Peter Sinclair

The role of debt in UK household spending decisions, Philip Bunn and May Rostom, Bank of England. [slies]

Discussant – Paul Mizen, Nottingham University [slides]


MPC Decision Making, the long expansion and the crisis: Heterogeneity and Network Structures, Arnab Bhattacharjee, Herriot-Watt University and Sean Holly, University of Cambridge. [slides]

Discussant – Richard Barwell, Royal Bank of Scotland [slides]


Dinner - Great Hall



Session IV

Chair: Peter Smith

Medium/long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis, Nick Oulton, LSE. [slides]

Discussant – Tiago Cavalcanti, Cambridge University [slides]


Shadow banking and UK credit expansions, Alistair Milne and Justine Wood, University of Loughborough. [slides]

Discussant – Charles Nolan, University of Glasgow




Session V

Chair: Peter Spencer

Money Growth in the Long Expansion, Ryland Thomas and Michael Mcleay, Bank of England. [slids]

Discussant - Alec Chrystal, Cass Business School [slides]


Lunch - Great Hall


Session VI

Chair: Michael Dempster

Tailwinds from the East? The effect of rising import penetration from emerging markets on import prices, John Lewis and Jumana Saleheen, Bank of England. [slides]

Discussant – Gulcin Ozkan, York University [slides]




Session VII

Chair: Jagjit Chadha

The Balance of Payments and Monetary Policy, Martin Weale, Monetary Policy Committee and Queen Mary University of London. [slids]

Discussant - Joe Pearlman, City London University [slides]


UK fiscal policy before the crisis, Paul Johnson, IFS. [slides]

Discussants – Coen Teulings, Cambridge University. Mike Wickens, University of York. [slides]

End Of Conference

Scientific Committee:

Jagjit Chadha, University of Kent.
Alex Chrystal, University of Cambridge and City University Business School.
Prasanna Gai, University of Auckland.
Sean Holly, University of Cambridge.
Joe Pearlman, City University, London.
Peter N Smith, University of York.