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Faculty of Economics



PhD(2007) from Cambridge University in neural networks. Previous career in quantitive finance. Head of Futures Trading, Getco Asia (2013) and Head of Equities Trading, Getco Europe (2010-2011). Has designed and traded algorithms on every liquid equity platform in Europe and Asia and every major electronic derivatives market in the world. Expert Witness and Non-Executive Director. Current area of interest is the relationship between betting and financial markets around political events. More details at

PhD Title

Essays on the behaviour of political and financial markets

Research Interests

Market Efficiency, Bayesian Methods, Politics, High Frequency Trading, Market Microstructure

Recent Publications

Published Papers

Auld, T. and Linton, O. The Behaviour of Betting and Currency Markets on the Night of the EU Referendum, International Journal of Forecasting vol 35(1) (2019) pp. 371-389
Auld, T. and Hobson, M. P. COSMONET: fast cosmological parameter estimation in non-flat models using neural networks, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society vol 387(4) (2008) pp. 1575-1582
Auld, T., Bridges, M., Hobson, M. P. and Gull, S. F. Fast cosmological parameter estimation using neural networks, Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society vol 376(1) (2007) pp. L11-L15
Auld, T., Moore, A. W. and Gull, S. F. Bayesian Neural Networks for Internet Traffic Classification, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks vol 8 no. 1 (2007) pp. 223-239

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics

Auld, T. Political markets as equity price factors, (2022) CWPE2264
Auld, T. Betting and financial markets are cointegrated on election night, (2022) CWPE2263
Auld, T. and Linton, O. The Behaviour of Betting and Currency Markets on the Night of the EU Referendum, (2017) CWPE1750

Research Activities

Gamblers Predicted Brexit before Financial Traders
The University's Research site have published an article on a study authored by Tom Auld and Professor Oliver Linton that shows the betting market predicted the Brexit result an hour earlier than the foreign exchange market. A number of media outlets have also picked up the findings of their paper, including Sky News, Daily Mail, Hindustan Times, London Economic, Interesting Engineering, Belfast Telegraph and The Express.
Published on - Monday 14th January 2019

Best Finance Student Paper Award
Congratulations to Maarten De Ridder and Thomas Auld (Faculty PhD students) who have both won prizes at the CERF Cambridge Best Finance Student Paper Award. Maarten's was awarded the £500 prize for his paper "Investment in Productivity and the Long-Run Effect of Financial Crises on Output" and Tom the same for his paper "The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum".
Published on - Monday 18th June 2018


F500 Empirical Finance Classes

Supervisory Team

Thomas Auld

PhD Student

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Contact Details
College: Churchill College