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Faculty of Economics

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Sá, F. and Wieladek, T.

Monetary Policy, Capital Inflows, and the Housing Boom


Abstract: We estimate an open economy VAR model to quantify the effect of monetary policy and capital inflows shocks on the US housing market. The shocks are identified with sign restrictions derived from a standard DSGE model. We find that monetary policy shocks have a limited effect on house prices and residential investment. In contrast, capital inflows shocks driven by an increase in foreign savings have a positive and persistent effect on both housing variables. Other sources of capital inflows shocks, such as foreign monetary expansion or an increase in aggregate demand in the US, have a more limited role.

Keywords: House prices, capital inflows, monetary policy

JEL Codes: E50 F30


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