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Faculty of Economics

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Araujo, J., Lastauskas, P. and Papageorgiou, C.

Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins


Abstract: The capital flows network has changed substantially, bringing new investors and target economies into play. Related, a recent intensification of capital flows to low income countries (LICs) has posed a number of questions. Most importantly, the very nature of those flows and important factors affecting foreign investors decision which can ultimately affect growth prospects of low income countries (together with an issue of sustainability) remain open for an academic probe. Due to an existence of a share of costs which is fixed in nature, there is a need to analyze capital flows and their evolution at two margins: intensive and extensive. This paper presents a parsimonious theoretical account that is consequently mapped into an econometric framework where we allow for two-tier decisions and cross-sectional dependence. Results indicate that market entry costs affect investment decisions pertinent to the LICs, consistently with the static theory. However, persistence in extensive margin eliminates this effect once dynamics is allowed for.

Keywords: Bilateral Capital Flows, Foreign Direct Investment, Portfolio Flows, Developing Economies, Extensive and Intensive Margins, Heterogeneous Panels, Cross-Sectional Dependence, Copulae

JEL Codes: C33 C34 F21 F62 O16

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