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Faculty of Economics

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Lloyd, S., Manuel, E. and Panchev, K.

Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk

IMF Economic Review


Abstract: We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of domestic GDP growth. We propose a method to account for foreign vulnerabilities using bilateral-exposure weights when assessing downside macroeconomic risks within quantile regressions. For an advanced-economy panel, we show that tighter foreign financial conditions and faster foreign credit-to-GDP growth are associated with a more severe left-tail of domestic GDP growth, even controlling for domestic indicators. Incorporating foreign variables improves estimates of domestic GDP-at-Risk, both in and out of sample. Decomposing GDP-at-Risk into domestic and foreign origins, we show that foreign shocks are a key driver of domestic macroeconomic tail risks.

Keywords: Financial stability, GDP-at-Risk, International spillovers, Local projections, Quantile regression, Tail risk

JEL Codes: E44, E58, F30, F41, F44, G01

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Keynes Fund Project(s):
Disaster Risk, Asset Prices and the Macroeconomy (JHUX)  

Papers and Publications

Recent Publications

Ambrus, A. and Elliott, M. Investments in Social Ties, Risk Sharing, and Inequality Review of Economic Studies [2021]

Carvalho, V. M., Nirei, M., Saito, Y. U. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A. Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake Quarterly Journal of Economics [2021]

Mueller, H. and Rauh, C. The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention Journal of the European Economic Association [2022]

Bhattacharya, D. Nonparametric Approaches to Empirical Welfare Analysis Journal of Economic Literature, forthcoming [2023]