skip to content

Faculty of Economics

Journal Cover

Crowley, M. A. and Bown, C. P.

Self-enforcing trade agreements: evidence from time-varying trade policy

American Economic Review

Vol. 103(2) pp. 1071-1090 (2013)

Abstract: The Bagwell and Staiger (1990) theory of cooperative trade agreements predicts new tariffs (i) increase with imports, (ii) increase with the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticities, and (iii) decrease with the variance of imports. We find US import policy during 1997-2006 to be consistent with this theory. A one standard deviation increase in import growth, the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticity, and the standard deviation of import growth changes the probability that the US imposes an antidumping tariff by 35 percent, by 88 percent, and by -76 percent, respectively.

JEL Codes: F12, F13, F14

Author links: Meredith Crowley  

Publisher's Link:

Papers and Publications

Recent Publications

Ambrus, A. and Elliott, M. Investments in Social Ties, Risk Sharing, and Inequality Review of Economic Studies [2021]

Onatski, A. and Wang, C. Spurious Factor Analysis Econometrica [2021]

Mueller, H. and Rauh, C. The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention Journal of the European Economic Association [2022]

Brotherhood, l., Cavalcanti, T., Da Mata, D. and Santos, C. Slums and Pandemics Journal of Development Economics [2022]