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Research Interests

M. Hashem Pesaran has made significant contributions in time series and panel data econometrics. He is the developer of the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach used extensively by many economists and international institutions, including IMF, ECB and the World Bank to study and predict international spillover effects and interdependencies in the global economy. By inventing this model, Pesaran has helped in transforming our understanding of interconnectedness of international financial systems and global risk taking.


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Research Activities

Tight Race in US Election 2020 Forecast
A new method of forecasting the US presidential race appears to show the Democrats will win the popular vote. The forecast is tight, but indicates voters have a short memory of seismic economic events over the past few years. Emeritus Professor Hashem Pesaran explains why his model would have also forecast the U.S. Presidential election of 2016 which caught many by surprise.
Published on - Friday 23rd October 2020

Economic Consequences of Covid-19
Dr. Kamiar Mohaddes, with Alexander Chudik (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), M. Hashem Pesaran (University of Southern California), Mehdi Raissi (IMF) and Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins Carey Business School) have published an article for VOXeu titled "Economic Consequences of Covid-19: A Counterfactual Multi-Country Analysis".This column shows that the global recession is likely to be long lasting, with no country escaping the impact of Covid-19 regardless of their mitigation strategy; our findings call for a coordinated multi-country policy response to the pandemic.

The column was also included in the World Economic Forum as part of the Jobs Reset Summit, "The economic consequences of COVID-19: Why no country is immune".

Published on - Tuesday 20th October 2020

Economic Theory Workshop
Cambridge-INET is hosting an Economic Theory Workshop on the 1st - 3rd May 2018, starting at 12.00pm (on the 1st) and finishing at 5.00pm (on the 3rd), in the Keynes Hall, King's College, Cambridge.
Event Date - Tuesday 1st May 2018 - Thursday 3rd May 2018

Dr. Mohaddes's Research Featured in the News
Dr. Kamiar Mohaddes's paper "Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy" (joint with Prof. Hashem Pesaran) was featured in the Albawaba News article "Reneging on the Nuclear Deal Will Isolate America, Empower China, and Distance Europe".
Published on - Thursday 1st March 2018

Panel Data Workshop
This workshop is organised by Cambridge-INET and Cemmap and will take place on the 23rd - 24th May 2017, Winstanley theatre, Trinity College and will involve a number of speakers domestic and international presenting their work on panel data methods with applications in finance and macroeconomics.
Event Date - Tuesday 23rd May 2017 - Wednesday 24th May 2017

Research Grants

Cross Section Dependence In Panel Data Models (Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC))
Real Time Econometrics, And/Or Forecasting Time Series Subject To Multiple Structural Breaks (SINOPIA Asset Management)
Dynamic Panel Analysis Of Interactions And Nonlinearities (Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC))
International Economic Linkages And Synchronisation In Business Cycles (European Central Bank)

Keynes Fund Sponsored Projects

Climate Change, Volatility, and Economic Growth: Evidence from U.S. States with Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (JHOU)

COVID-19 Economic Research

Special Feature: Mandated Social Isolation Policies Can Help to Mitigate Employment Losses