Johnsson, I., Pesaran, M. H., Yang, C. F.

Structural Econometric Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19 Across U.S. States and Selected Countries

CWPE2360

Abstract: This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number (R₀) of Covid-19. This approach identifies R₀ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of mitigating factors on disease diffusion and is easy to implement. We apply the method to data from 48 contiguous U.S. states and a diverse set of countries. Our results reveal a notable concentration of R₀ estimates with an average value of 4.5. Through a counterfactual analysis, we highlight a significant underestimation of the R₀ when mitigating factors are not appropriately accounted for.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, Covid-19, panel threshold regression model

JEL Codes: C13 C33 I12 I18 J18

Author links: M. Hashem Pesaran  

PDF: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2360.pdf

Open Access Link: https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.104899

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