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Faculty of Economics

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Carvalho, V. M., Harvey, A.C. and Trimbur, T.

A note on common cycles, common trends and convergence.

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics

Abstract: This article compares and contrasts structural time series models and the common features methodology. The way in which trends are handled is highlighted by describing a recent structural time series model that allows convergence to a common growth path. Postsample data are used to test its forecasting performance for income per head in U.S. regions. A test for common cycles is proposed, its asymptotic distribution is given, and small-sample properties are studied by Monte Carlo experiments. Applications are presented, with special attention given to the implications of using higher-order cycles.

Author links: Vasco Carvalho  

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Papers and Publications

Recent Publications

Faraglia, E., Marcet, A., Oikonomou, R. and Scott, A. Government Debt management: the Short and the Long of it Review of Economic Studies, accepted [2018]

Carvalho, V. M. and Grassi, B. Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle American Economic Review [2019]

Gagnon, J. and Goyal, S. Networks, markets and inequality American Economic Review [2017]