skip to content

Faculty of Economics

Journal Cover

Mueller, H. and Rauh, C.

The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention

Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

: jvac025

Abstract: In this article we propose a framework to tackle conflict prevention, an issue which has received interest in several policy areas. A key challenge of conflict forecasting for prevention is that outbreaks of conflict in previously peaceful countries are rare events and therefore hard to predict. To make progress in this hard problem, this project summarizes more than four million newspaper articles using a topic model. The topics are then fed into a random forest to predict conflict risk, which is then integrated into a simple static framework in which a decision maker decides on the optimal number of interventions to minimize the total cost of conflict and intervention. According to the stylized model, cost savings compared to not intervening pre-conflict are over US$1 trillion even with relatively ineffective interventions, and US$13 trillion with effective interventions.

JEL Codes: F21, C53, C55

Author links: Christopher Rauh  

Publisher's Link: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac025



Cambridge Working Paper in Economics Version of Paper: The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention, Mueller, H. and Rauh, C. , (2021)

Papers and Publications



Recent Publications


Porzio, T., Rossi, F. and Santangelo, G. The Human Side of Structural Transformation American Economic Review [2022]

Bhattacharya, D. The Empirical Content of Binary Choice Models Econometrica [2021]

Brotherhood, l., Cavalcanti, T., Da Mata, D. and Santos, C. Slums and Pandemics Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming [2022]

Toxvaerd, F.M.O. and Rowthorn, R. On the Management of Population Immunity Journal of Economic Theory, forthcoming [2022]