Winzer, C.

Measuring Energy Security

CWPE1305

Abstract: Continuity of energy supplies is a central aspect of concerns about energy security. Although the continuity of supplies can be influenced by a large number of risks, most models only analyse a small subset of risk sources and often neglect interdependencies between them. In this paper we introduce a probabilistic time-series model that quantifies the impact of inter-dependent natural, technical and human risk sources on energy supply continuity. Based on a case study of Italian gas and electricity markets we conclude that typical simplifications in time-series models and alternative approaches lead to a bias, which justifies the usage of detailed time-series models of interdependent risks such as the framework suggested in this paper, even though more detailed versions of this and other frameworks may quickly become very resource intensive.

Keywords: Energy security, security of supply, reliability, Monte-Carlo simulation, measurement

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PDF: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1305.pdf