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Faculty of Economics

Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean
Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Doherty-Bigara, J., Klusak, P., Mohaddes, K. (2024)

Keywords: Caribbean, Climate Economy Models, counterfactual analysis, Latin America, Physical Risks, Sovereign credit rating, Sovereign debt, Transition Risks
JEL Codes: C33 C53 G10 G18 H63 O44 O54 Q51 Q54

The Information Content of Conflict, Social Unrest and Policy Uncertainty Measures for Macroeconomic Forecasting
Diakonova, M., Molina, L., Mueller, H., Pérez, J. J., Rauh, C. (2024)

Keywords: Forecasting, Forecasting GDP, Geopolitical Risk, Natural Language Processing, Policy Uncertainty, Social Conflict, Social Unrest
JEL Codes: E37 D74 N16

Structural Change at a Disaggregated Level: Sectoral Heterogeneity Matters
Sen, A. (2024)

Keywords: Heterogeneity, Income Effects, Input-Output Tables, Investment, Services, Structural Change
JEL Codes: O41 O51 E22 D57

The Swift Decline of the British Pound: Evidence from UK Trade-invoicing after the Brexit Vote
Crowley, M. A., Han, L., Son, M. (2024)

Keywords: Brexit, Invoicing Currency, Sterling, Trade Transactions
JEL Codes: F14 F31 F41

Michalopoulos, S., Rauh, C. (2024)

Keywords: Culture, Entertainment, Folklore, media, Movies, text analysis, Values
JEL Codes: N00 O10 P00 Z10 Z11

Introducing a Global Dataset on Conflict Forecasts and News Topics
Mueller, H., Rauh, C., Seimon, B. (2024)

Keywords: Civil War, Conflict, Forecasting, Machine Learning, News Topics, Random Forest, Topic Models

Uncovering the Sources of Geographic Market Segmentation: Evidence from the EU and the US
Hoste, J., Verboven, F. (2024)

Keywords: Geographic Market Integration, LOP Deviations, Product Availability Differences
JEL Codes: D12 F15 R32

The Theory of Reserve Accumulation, Revisited
Corsetti, G., Maeng, S. H. (2023)

Keywords: Debt Sustainability, Discretionary Fiscal Policy, Expectations, Foreign Reserves, Self-Fulfilling Crises, Sovereign Default
JEL Codes: E43 E62 F34 H50 H63

Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result
Bilbiie, F. O., Trabandt, M. (2023)

Keywords: inflation, Interest Rate, New Keynesian Model, Observational Equivalence, Output, Sticky Prices, Sticky Wages
JEL Codes: E10 E30 E50

Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier
Bilbiie, F. O., Melitz, M. J. (2023)

Keywords: Aggregate Demand and Supply, Entry-Exit, Monetary Policy, Recessions, Sticky Prices, Sticky Wages, Variety
JEL Codes: E30 E40 E50 E60

Granular Banking Flows and Exchange-Rate Dynamics
Bippus, B., Lloyd, S., Ostry, D. (2023)

Keywords: Capital flows, Exchange Rates, Granular instrumental variables, International banking
JEL Codes: E00 F00 F30

Greed? Profits, Inflation, and Aggregate Demand
Bilbiie, F. O., Kanzig, D. R. (2023)

Keywords: Aggregate demand, income distribution, inflation, profits
JEL Codes: D11 E32 E52 E62

Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)
Ostry, D. A. (2023)

Keywords: Disaster Risk, Exchange Rates, Liquidity Yields, Quantile regression, U.S. Safety
JEL Codes: C22 F31 G15

On the Black-White Gaps in Labor Supply and Earnings over the Lifecycle in the US
Rauh, C., Valladares-Esteban, A. (2023)

Keywords: Employment gap, Inequality, Labor supply decision, Lifecycle, Racial gap, Wage gap
JEL Codes: J15 J24 J31 J64

Short and Variable Lags
Buda, G., Carvalho, V. M., Corsetti, G., Duarte, J. B., Hansen, S., Moura, A. S., Ortiz, A., Rodrigo, T., Rodríguez Mora, J. V., Alves da Silva, G. (2023)

Keywords: Economic Activity, Event-study, High-frequency data, Local projections, Monetary Policy
JEL Codes: E31 E43 E44 E52 E58

Capital Controls and Free-Trade Agreements
Lloyd, S. P., Marin, E. A. (2023)

Keywords: Capital-Flow Management, Free-Trade Agreements, Ramsey Policy, Tariffs, Trade Policy
JEL Codes: F13 F32 F33 F38

Green Transmission: Monetary Policy in the Age of ESG
Patozi, A. (2023)

Keywords: Climate Change, ESG, Heterogeneity, Monetary Policy, Sustainable Investing
JEL Codes: E52 G12 G14 G30

Air Pollution and Firm-Level Human Capital, Knowledge and Innovation
Cavalcanti, T., Mohaddes, K., Nian, H., Yin, H. (2023)

Keywords: China, human capital, innovation, knowledge, Pollution
JEL Codes: O15 O30 O44 Q51 Q56



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